YORGOO Analyses forecasts Landslide for Obama Democrats
Vouliagmeni, November 4, 2008 - by Yorgo, YORGOO.com
It has been a 21 months long race and now, 24 hours ahead of final results, we can already draw some interesting conclusions and forecasts based YORGOO Online Business Analytics.
For years we have been measuring success based on many parameters, first of all on traffic and second on cash-flow generated by that traffic. We also have been following the increasing trend of internet penetration in various countries and the impact thereof into day to day life and the way the internet changes peoples behavior.
The most interesting impact which the present presidential campaign illustrates is in the way and at what density people communicate using online features. With increasing internet penetration and increasing communication by the longer the more representative portions of a population, our analysis has become more accurate in predicting results.
Yes, there is Gallup and its Polls indicating that Senator Obama leads by some 12 points over Senator McCain, however: it is our opinion that the increasing representativity of online analysis may give a better picture than any polls, namely when moral and ethic issues are at stake, such as racism which may influence the result beyond what people may admit when asked by polling organs.
The second point of the analysis has to do with Networking and the buzz created by strong leaders. Barack Obama has built a huge network of active players over the last few months and the high conversion rate in meetings and cash contributions will be a great study case for future networking and people who need popular support to reach their goals (Politicians, Artists, Publishers, YORGOO subscribers).
Considering just the internet elements, here is our best prediction: Barack Obama will end up anywhere between 338 and 370 electoral votes.
We get extremes as high as 400 and as low as 320, however the center of Gravity according to our analysis is between 338 and 370. A correction downwards in function of the offline environment is necessary. The question will be: by how much are we off the final result. If the net becomes the longer the more representative of the reality, then the error margin should shrink from election to election and we should be at some 10% error this year.
Unforeseeable elements are the impact of the Bradley Effect, which we believe weights less in online analysis as people tend to be more truthful in the anonymity of the internet compared to traditional polling.
The swing-states surely are the hot battle ground and the most unpredictable factor will be the number of people who will not be able to vote because of time constraints, lack of voting machines or other factors such as the dissuasive presence of police forces at voting venues namely in black neighborhoods of cities managed by Republican Majors. We have been looking into traffic stats, state by state.
But the Facebooking of the Obama Campaign has already lead to an unprecedented 24 million of people who have casted their votes during early voting days.
Let’s look at the traffic stats of the two candidates’ personal .coms:
Barack Obama vs. John McCain Traffic - Source Alexa
Obama McCain Traffic - Source Alexa
Barack Obama Traffic Statistics - Source Alexa
Interestingly you see, that there was never one single day when John McCain outranked Barack Obama. For the sake of nostalgic Democrats, let’s mix in Hillary Clinton’s chart:
Obama, McCain, Clinton - Source Alexa
The Chart expresses well what Hillary Clinton’s main argument was in early Summer: until mid June, Hillary Clinton was ahead of McCain, however Obama always was ahead of both in terms of Online Buzz (traffic).
Obama’s online Fundraising is a historic event as well and directly related to traffic. The above charts are not really representative, however they return picture close to what we get by mixing in other related sites.
Interesting also the interaction between online and offline networking! Obama’s huge buzz mobilizing many small contributors online translates into much larger crowds at his off-line meetings.
We will look at the networking strategies used by Barack Obama’s Campaign after the Elections.
Make it a Great US Election 2008 Day!
Yorgo
YORGOO